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Grain Market Summary - Monday 19th August 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

To get the Daily Market Summary in your inbox every morning, send an email to hhobbs@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

 

OVERALL

 

  • Green across the board as corn recovered from the recent mass liquidation. This week focus will be on the Pro Farmer crop tour and their analysis as they tour across the US. The AUD is relatively unchanged at USD0.6779.

 

WHEAT

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Sept 19 (U)

470.75

+1.75

$255.16

+0.84

394.25

+4.50

506.25

+3.50

Dec 19 (Z)

477.50

+3.00

$258.82

+1.51

409.50

+5.25

518.50

+3.75

Mar 20 (H)

484.00

+3.00

$262.34

+1.51

425.50

+5.25

533.00

+3.00

May 20 (K)

484.00

+3.00

$262.34

+1.51

425.50

+5.25

533.00

+3.00

 

  • Wheat found support in corn’s upward momentum on Friday.
  • EU and Black Sea markets finished marginally lower as harvest in these regions nears completion.
  • Russian wheat exports since July 1st are roughly 11% behind last year’s pace as the disparity between trade bids and grower offers continue.
  • In their latest report GIWA have said that wheat crops across the state have the potential to return average yields as long as we see a similar spring to 2018.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Corn

CBOT (c/bu)

Sept 19 (U)

371.00

+10.25

Dec 19 (Z)

380.75

+9.75

Mar 20 (H)

392.75

+9.25

May 20 (K)

392.75

+9.25

 

  • The liquidation of corn contracts following last week’s USDA shock projections seems to have come to an end. The funds were in buying mode, likely correcting any overselling, allowing corn to finishing firmly in the green on Friday.
  • The Pro Farmer crop tour will take place through the US corn belt this week. It is expected that their reporting on average yield will be below the USDA stated average of 169.6bu/a. The market will be particularly conscious of private analysts whose predictions are below the USDA’s. Watch this space.

 

OILSEEDS   

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

Sept 19 (U)

867.25

+9.25

Nov 19 (X)

452.40

+1.20

Nov 19 (X)

380.00

+1.00

Nov 19 (X)

879.75

+9.00

Jan 20 (F)

460.00

+1.10

Feb 20 (G)

380.00

+1.00

Jan 20 (F)

893.50

+9.25

March 20 (H)

466.50

+1.00

May 20 (K)

378.25

+0.25

 

  • Soybeans saw a solid finish on the back of bargain buying and strength in corn.
  • The soybean market is also beginning to consider private analyst projections for yield vs the USDA’s announced average of 48.5bu/a. Some analyst predict the average yield may be as low as 44.2bu/a.
  • A surprise announcement of a 296.5k sale of new crop US soybeans also supported values on Friday.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.6779

+0.0003

AUDCAD

0.8964

-0.0062

AUDEUR

0.6112

+0.0012

CRUDE (N)

54.81

+0.34

 

  • Currency markets were stable on Friday and as such the AUD is relatively unchanged at USD0.6779.
  • There is no Australian data of note out today so the AUD will once again be influenced by global growth, trade tensions and risk appetite.
  • Crude oil values recovered with market sensitivity to trade tensions. Trump said he expects to meet with the Chinese president soon, which somewhat eased concerns that trade talks have spiraled out of control.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WU9 - WN9

6.75

+1.25

KWN9 - WN9

-76.50

+2.75

MWN9 - WN9

35.50

+1.75

WZ9 - WN9

13.25

+1.25

KWU9 - WU9

-68.00

+2.25

MWU9 - WU9

41.00

+0.75

WH0 - WN9

13.25

+1.25

KWZ9 - WZ9

-58.50

+2.25

MWZ9 - WZ9

49.00

0.00

WN9 - CN9

99.75

-8.50

KWN9 - CN9

23.25

-5.75

MWN9 - CN9

135.25

-6.75

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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