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Grain Market Summary - Friday 23rd February 2018

Compiled by Aaron Dolin

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OVERALL

  • Futures again had a mixed session overnight. The USDA has pegged US bean planted area in line with corn for the first time since 1983, as global bean demand continues to rise.                                                                                            

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Mar 18  (H)

451.25

+4.00

$211.27

 $      1.87

470.75

+5.00

603.00

+1.75

May 18  (K)

464.25

+4.75

$217.36

 $      2.22

486.25

+4.50

615.75

+3.25

July 18  (N)

479.00

+4.25

$224.27

 $      1.99

504.25

+4.75

625.75

+3.75

Sept 18 (U)

495.25

+4.00

$231.87

 $      1.87

522.00

+5.00

632.50

+3.50

  • Wheat opened lower and was sold off throughout the session on forecast rains, before a late revival saw all complexes end higher.
  • The recent USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference sees the USDA peg its wheat acres estimate at 46.5mil/a, slightly above both trade estimates (46.082nil/a) and last year’s number (46mil/a.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) maintains its global wheat crop estimate of 757mmt.
  • Recent export data shows soft wheat exports from the EU bloc are running 19% behind last year’s levels.

 

CORN

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Mar 18 (H)

366.75

+1.00

May 18  (K)

374.75

+0.75

July 18  (N)

382.50

+0.75

  • Corn futures again traded a narrow range despite the activity in the wheat and oilseed complexes.
  • The USDA has pegged its US corn planted area at 90mil/a, coming in-line with the average trade estimate of 89.9mil/a.
  • The USDA reported a 130kmt US corn sale to an unknown destination overnight.
  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange expects Argentina to harvest a 37mmt corn crop this season, 2mmt lower than its previous estimate.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Mar 18 (H)

1032.00

-2.25

510.70

+2.40

May 18   (K)

353.50

-1.00

May 18  (K)

1043.25

-2.25

515.20

+1.70

Aug 18   (Q)

350.25

-0.75

July 18  (N)

1052.50

-2.50

520.70

+2.10

Nov 18   (X)

353.25

-0.75

  • Despite the multitude of Argentine crop downgrades, bean futures edged lower overnight as the expectation of heavier rains got investors nervous.
  • The USDA has also pegged its US bean planted area at 90mil/a, slightly below the average trade estimate of 90.6mil/a.
  • The USDA also reported a 110kmt US bean sale to an unknown destination overnight.
  • The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange expects Argentina to harvest a 47mmt bean crop this season, 3mmt lower than its previous estimate.
  • The Rosario Futures Exchange has also decreased its Argentine bean crop estimate to 46.5mmt, a whopping 5.5mmt lower than its last estimate.

 

OTHER

 

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7848

+0.0041

AUDCAD

0.9971

+0.0056

CRUDE (K)

62.60

+1.08

  • The AUD rebounded overnight as global investor risk appetite returned.
  • The ASX200 (^AXJO) traded both sides of a 45 point range before closing the session slightly higher. The initial selloff came on the back of weakness in US futures markets (CommSec TV).
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to edge higher, adding a further 21 points overnight to close out the day at 1167.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

 

Close

 

Close

WK8 - WH8

13.00

+0.75

KWH8 - WH8

19.50

+1.00

MWH8 - WH8

151.75

-2.25

WN8 - WH8

27.75

+0.25

KWK8 - WK8

22.00

-0.25

MWK8 - WK8

151.50

-1.50

WU8 - WH8

44.00

0.00

KWN8 - WN8

25.25

+0.50

MWN8 - WN8

146.75

-0.50

WH8 - CH8

84.50

+3.00

KWH8 - CH8

104.00

+4.00

KWK8 - CK8

111.50

+3.75

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at adolin@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Aaron Dolin

 

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