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Grain Market Summary - Tuesday 21st November 2017

Compiled by Aaron Dolin

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OVERALL

  • Corn the only commodity higher overnight as wheat futures gave back all of Fridays gains, while beans just couldn’t get there in the end. The AUD at US0.7560.                                                                                        

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Dec 17  (Z)

422.00

-5.25

$205.16

 $ (2.55)

416.00

-6.00

626.25

-8.75

Mar 18  (H)

438.50

-5.00

$213.18

 $ (2.43)

433.75

-5.75

639.75

-10.25

May 18  (K)

449.75

-4.50

$218.65

 $ (2.19)

446.25

-6.00

646.00

-10.00

July 18  (N)

462.25

-4.50

$224.73

 $ (2.19)

464.00

-5.50

648.25

-9.00

  • Poor exports and the juggernaut that is Russia pushed US wheat futures lower overnight.
  • The USDA reported weekly US wheat export inspections of 259kmt – well below the trades expectations.
  • Russian wheat exports for November are expected to reach 3.45mmt, well above the 2.85mmt exported a year ago. October saw 3.55mmt of wheat exported.
  • Egypt’s Supply Ministry continues to use a 0.05% ergot tolerance despite the Egyptian court system ruling a zero tolerance policy.
  • Turkey bought 230kmt of European milling grade wheat, at prices ranging between US$235mt - US$249mt CNF, to be delivered in the coming weeks.
  • There is only 3 days left for the trade to reverse the Chicago VSR, with the December-March spread needing to average 15.37c/bu to trigger. This is possible, but highly unlikely.

 

CORN

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Dec 17 (Z)

345.00

+2.00

Mar 18 (H)

356.50

+1.50

May 18  (K)

364.75

+1.25

  • Corn the only shining light overnight, and only just, with Chinese demand supporting prices.
  • The USDA reported weekly US corn export inspections of 633kmt – coming in-line with the trades expectations.
  • The overnight NASS report estimates 91% of the US corn harvest is now complete – up from 83% last week.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Mar 18 (H)

1001.25

-0.25

524.10

-3.10

Feb 18   (G)

375.25

-3.50

May 18  (K)

1010.75

-0.25

528.10

-3.00

May 18   (K)

376.50

-3.25

July 18  (N)

1019.25

-0.25

530.80

-3.10

Aug 18   (Q)

359.25

-4.25

  • India’s decision to increase import taxes over various commodities kept a lid on oilseed values overnight, despite the strong export numbers.
  • The USDA reported weekly US bean export inspections of 2.1mmt – exceeding the trades expectations.
  • The NASS report estimates 97% of the US corn harvest is now complete – up from 93% last week.
  • China's soymeal futures rallied 2% on Monday, as concerns over Argentina weather worries in Argentina

 

OTHER

 

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7561

-0.0001

AUDCAD

0.9689

+0.0018

CRUDE (U)

56.09

-0.46

  • The AUD weakened further overnight as the US-Australian yield spread relationship in short-term bonds narrowed, driven by political uncertainty in Germany.
  • Our local ASX200 index (^AXJO) followed Wall St. lower from Friday to start the week closing 0.2% lower. Utilities lost 2% while Financials also lost ground  (CommSec TV).
  • US equities rallied overnight as investors continue to absorb the last few weeks of earnings results. This week the markets can take a breather which could limit trading volumes (CommSec TV).
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued its trend higher from last week, closing 14 points higher on Monday to finish at 1385.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

 

Close

 

Close

WH8 - WZ7

16.50

+0.25

KWZ7 - WZ7

-6.00

-0.75

MWZ7 - WZ7

204.25

-3.50

WK8 - WZ7

27.75

+0.75

KWH8 - WH8

-4.75

-0.75

MWH8 - WH8

201.25

-5.25

WN8 - WZ7

40.25

+0.75

KWK8 - WK8

-3.50

-1.50

MWK8 - WK8

196.25

-5.50

WZ7- CZ7

77.00

-7.25

KWZ7 - CZ7

71.00

-8.00

KWK8 - CK8

81.50

-7.25

 

Have a great day!

 

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at adolin@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Aaron Dolin

 

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