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Grain Market Summary - Monday 19th November 2018

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

To get the Daily Market Summary in your inbox every morning, send an email to hhobbs@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

 

OVERALL

 

  • It was a mixed event for wheat on Friday. Corn ended lower despite some strength in soybeans. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.7322 this morning which is an 11 week high.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Dec 18 (Z)

506.75

+1.25

$254.30

-0.70

482.75

+2.75

571.25

-3.50

Mar 19 (H)

515.25

+0.50

$258.57

-1.10

506.50

+3.25

573.50

-1.50

May 19 (K)

522.25

-0.75

$262.08

-1.75

518.25

+2.75

580.00

-2.50

July 19 (N)

530.75

-1.00

$266.35

-1.89

529.25

+2.00

588.25

-2.25

 

  • A very light trading session saw Chicago end mixed on bull-spreading activity, while Kansas was firmer and Minnie weaker.
  • It looks as though the majority of the Saudi tender will be filled by European wheat, but the trade still has hope that US wheat will sneak in a cargo or two somewhere. Watch this space.
  • FranceAgriMer reports the French soft wheat crop has improved with 82% rated good/excellent this week – up from 80% last week. However it is worth noting that this is well behind last year’s rating of 97% good-excellent at this time.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Dec 18 (Z)

364.75

-2.75

Mar 19 (H)

375.75

-2.50

May 19 (K)

383.50

-2.25

July 19 (N)

390.00

-2.50

 

  • Better than expected export sales weren’t enough for corn to rally on.
  • South Korea’s tender for 60,000mt of corn will be filled by US produce.
  • US ethanol margins are at 10 year lows. Low demand of US corn for ethanol production is weighing on values.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Jan 19 (F)

892.25

+3.50

476.90

-1.30

Feb 19   (G)

373.00

-5.25

Mar 19 (H)

905.75

+3.50

484.80

-1.30

May 19 (K)

375.50

+4.00

May 19 (K)

918.75

+3.25

492.40

-1.60

August 19 (Q)

369.50

+0.50

 

  • On Friday Trump implied that there would be no further tariffs imposed on Chinese imports which soybeans took to be a positive sign that reconciliation is on the cards. However recent comments from US Vice President Mike Pence that the US would not ease up on China until they ‘change their ways’ may see those gains reversed in today’s session.
  • A reported sale of 100,000mt of US soybeans to an undisclosed destination further excited the soybean market.
  • The Brazilian soybean plant continues at a record pace, and the current rainfall event will ensure that the crop is off to a brilliant start.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7322

+0.0038

AUDCAD

0.9636

+0.0037

AUDEUR

0.6414

+0.0005

CRUDE (Z)

56.4600

0.00

 

  • The AUD rallied on Friday following Trump’s upbeat comments around negotiations with China. With little local data out this week, US/China stories are likely to be the largest influence on our currency.
  • Hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve and strength in equities have seen the USD ease.
  • The AUD gained against the Euro, as issues surround Brexit and Italy’s budget clash weighed on the Euro.
  • Crude oil was unchanged on Friday, as investors contemplate where to go from here.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WH9-WZ8

8.50

-0.75

KWZ8-WZ8

-24.00

+1.50

MWZ8 - WZ8

64.50

-4.75

WN9 - WZ8

15.50

-2.00

KWH9 - WH9

-8.75

+2.75

MWH9 - WH9

58.25

-2.00

WK9 - WZ8

15.50

-2.00

KWK9 - WH9

-4.00

+3.50

MWK9 - WK9

57.75

-1.75

WZ8 - CZ8

142.00

+4.00

KWZ8 - CZ8

118.00

+5.50

MWZ8 - CZ8

206.50

-0.75

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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