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Grain Market Summary - Tuesday 15th October 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Ag commodities were a mixed bag overnight with both wheat and soybeans ending higher and corn closing either side of unchanged. The AUD softened due to uncertainty regarding the recent partial agreement between the US and China.

WHEAT

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Dec 19 (Z)

511.00

+3.00

277.10

+2.32

425.75

+6.25

552.00

+4.00

Mar 20 (H)

516.75

+2.75

280.21

+2.19

437.75

+5.75

566.25

+4.25

May 20 (K)

521.25

+2.75

282.65

+2.19

446.75

+5.00

575.50

+4.75

July 20 (N)

524.50

+2.25

284.42

+1.93

456.25

+5.50

582.00

+4.00

 

  • Wheat is freely attaching its wagon to any positive news story of late; whether it be strength in corn or progress in US/China trade talks. Last night it favoured ongoing strength in Russian values as a reason to continue higher.  
  • Russian wheat values are now at four month highs but the farmer is still a reluctant seller at these levels.
  • Speaking of Russia, overnight we heard that Vietnam may once again be making noises of complaint regarding Russian wheat quality.
  • Forecasting group IKAR have added 200k to Russia’s wheat production, bringing their estimate to 75.6mmt.
  • The spread between December and March Kansas contracts implies that a storage reduction to 5c/bu is becoming more and more likely.

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Dec 19 (Z)

397.75

0.00

Mar 20 (H)

407.50

-0.25

May 20 (K)

412.50

-0.25

July 20 (N)

524.50

+2.25

 

  • Consolidation activity overnight saw corn end either side of unchanged.
  • Portions of the US Midwest spent much longer than anticipated under snow and at freezing temperatures over the weekend. The market will most likely wait for qualitative evidence of loss before reacting. Harvest is expected to resume over the coming weekend so watch this space.
  • EU barley exports for the marketing year so far total 2.3mmt, a 52% improvement54r compared to the same period last year.

 

OILSEEDS   

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

Nov 19 (X)

940.50

+4.50

Nov 19 (X)

459.90

0.00

Nov 19 (X)

382.50

-1.25

Jan 20 (F)

955.00

+4.50

Jan 20 (F)

468.70

0.00

Feb 20 (G)

383.75

-0.25

March 20 (H)

965.00

+4.00

March 20 (H)

477.40

0.00

May 20 (K)

381.50

-0.25

 

  • Weather volatility continues to seep into soybean values, with an unfavourable forecast overnight seeing values push higher.
  • Some underlying positive sentiment from the partial trade agreement with China announced on Friday will have contributed to the strength in soybeans overnight, however the deal won’t be finalised for another month or so, and lacks details on exactly what volume of US products China will buy and when. We can’t deny it is seemingly a positive step, but the outcome of the trade agreement still heavily depends on the fragile handling of both President’s egos.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.6776

-0.0017

AUDCAD

0.8970

+0.0003

AUDEUR

0.6146

-0.0009

CRUDE (V)

53.59

-1.11

 

  • Markets were softer following China’s playing down of the partial trade agreement with the US last Friday. Analysts are divided on whether ‘Phase One’ of this agreement are indicative of a complete trade deal being reached in the near future or whether the Trump administration is trying to use it as a positive news story going into the 2020 election.
  • The uncertainty surrounding the partial agreement saw the AUD and many other markets, such as crude oil, fall.
  • This week we will see a raft of economic data released from China which will influence the AUD’s direction.  

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WH0 - WZ9

5.75

-0.25

KWH0 - WZ9

-85.25

+3.25

MWZ9 - WZ9

41.00

+1.00

WK0 - WZ9

10.25

-0.25

KWK0 - WH0

-79.00

+3.00

MWH0 - WH0

49.50

+1.50

WN0 - WZ9

13.50

-0.75

KWN0 - WN0

-74.50

+2.25

MWN0 - WN0

54.25

+2.00

WZ9 - CZ9

113.25

+3.00

KWZ9 - CZ9

28.00

+6.25

MWZ9 - CZ9

154.25

+4.00

 

Have a great day!

 

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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