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Grain Market Summary - Thursday 17th of January 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

To get the Daily Market Summary in your inbox every morning, send an email to hhobbs@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

 

OVERALL

 

  • The USDA is still out of operation (due to the US government shutdown) and with no new inputs we moved marginally higher due mainly to bargain buying. The AUD moved lower overnight and is trading at 0.7170 this morning.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

512.50

+1.50

$262.64

+1.97

495.50

0.00

565.00

+3.00

May 19 (K)

518.00

+2.00

$265.46

+2.24

506.50

-0.25

569.75

+3.00

July 19 (N)

523.00

+2.50

$268.02

+2.50

517.25

+0.25

577.00

+3.25

Sept 19 (U)

531.50

+2.50

$272.38

+2.52

529.75

+0.25

584.25

+3.50

 

  • Bargain buying saw wheat finish marginally higher.
  • Russian Federal Customs Service says that 24.7mmt of wheat has been shipped since July 1st 2018 .
  • Russian Ag Ministry again says there is no plan to limit grain exports or increase export taxes.
  • US Soft Red Winter Wheat is the cheapest FOB offered wheat in the world at the moment, so you would expect some business to be getting done at current levels but with the USDA in shutdown there is no real way to quantify demand.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Mar 19 (H)

374.00

+2.75

May 19 (K)

382.25

+2.50

July 19 (N)

390.00

+2.50

Sept 19 (U)

393.75

+2.25

 

  • Yesterday’s drop encouraged some export business with South Korea reportedly buying US corn. Ideas that more business will be conducted at these levels was supportive of values.
  • The ethanol production number in last night’s report was actually better than expected although margins remain in the red.
  • China will likely sell off the last of its aging corn stocks this year an agriculture ministry official said. Although no one knows how much corn remains in government stockpiles the official did say that “2019 will very likely be the end of this round of corn de-stocking in China, and the ending stocks are expected to return to normal levels."

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Mar 19 (H)

894.50

+1.25

479.40

+3.60

Feb 19   (G)

369.25

-0.25

May 19 (K)

908.00

+1.25

487.80

+3.80

May 19 (K)

370.75

+5.25

July 19 (N)

908.00

-8.60

487.80

-3.60

August 19 (Q)

367.00

+0.50

 

  • The market decided that yesterday’s negative comments from US politician Lighthizer on the trade negotiations with China should be taken with a grain of salt as he is often the ‘glass half empty’ type so negotiations probably aren’t entirely in the gutter.
  • Chinese Ag officials are encouraging hog farmers to restock their herds as soon as possible in order to temper the expected price increase of pork products. Meanwhile Mongolia has reported its first case of African Swine Fever, showing that the incurable disease is still spreading.
  • Some weather forecasters are increasing rain outlook in Brazil over the next 10 days.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7170

-0.0033

AUDCAD

0.9509

-0.0047

AUDEUR

0.6290

+0.0005

CRUDE (H)

52.61

+0.22

 

  • The AUD weakened against most major crosses overnight as general geopolitical instability again weighs on risk appetite.
  • The USD moved higher on the positive balance of the US earnings report and higher treasury yields.
  • Australian housing data for November was released this morning with the value of all housing-related lending falling by 2.5%.  

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WK9 - WH9

5.50

+0.50

KWH9 - WH9

-17.00

-1.50

MWH9 - WH9

52.50

+1.50

WN9 - WH9

10.50

+1.00

KWK9 - WK9

-11.50

-2.25

MWK9 - WK9

51.75

+1.00

WU9 - WH9

10.50

+1.00

KWN9 - WN9

-5.75

-2.25

MWN9 - WN9

54.00

+0.75

WH9 - CH9

138.50

-1.25

KWH9 - CH9

121.50

-2.75

MWH9 - CH9

191.00

+0.25

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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