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Grain Market Summary - Tuesday 18th June 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Wheat was mixed while corn was marginally higher on spillover strength from soybeans. The AUD is a touch softer this morning at 0.6855 US cents.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

July 19 (N)

539.50

+1.00

$289.18

+1.29

475.50

-0.75

560.25

-3.00

Sept 19 (U)

542.75

+0.75

$290.92

+1.16

487.50

-1.00

566.75

-3.75

Dec 19 (Z)

554.00

+0.75

$296.95

+1.18

509.00

-0.50

579.00

-2.25

Mar 20 (H)

564.25

+1.25

$302.45

+1.46

529.50

-0.25

591.25

-1.75

 

  • Wheat ended mixed as only Chicago managed to hold onto early session gains.
  • Spring wheat couldn’t shrug off the positivity surrounding rainfalls in Canada. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent dropped 4% week on week to 77% good/excellent.
  • Winter wheat conditions are unchanged at 64% good/excellent with harvest 8% complete (five year average is 20% complete by now).
  • Japan, who is the US’ largest Asian customer, has officially decided not to suspend US wheat shipments despite the discovery of unapproved genetically engineered plants in Washington state. Japan says because it already has the resources to test for modified varieties it does not need to suspend imports.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

July 19 (N)

454.75

+1.75

Sept 19 (U)

461.50

+3.25

Dec 19 (Z)

468.50

+5.00

Mar 20 (H)

473.00

+5.50

 

  • Corn was a follower of soybeans overnight but couldn’t hold onto session highs.
  • US corn planting is up 9% from last week, now 92% complete. It is worth noting that this progress is not necessarily a reflection of more corn seed now in the ground as it also accounts for reduced area now that some farmers have made the final decision not to plant.
  • US corn condition ratings were unchanged from last week at 59% good/excellent, however this data needs to be taken with a rather large pinch of salt as it can only report on corn planted and actually out of the ground…
  • AgroConsult has increased its Brazilian corn production forecast to 101.2mmt.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

July 19 (N)

912.75

+16.00

July 19 (N)

459.60

+4.70

August 19 (Q)

372.25

+3.00

August 19 (Q)

919.25

+16.25

Nov 19 (X)

475.40

+5.10

Nov 19 (X)

374.25

+2.75

September 19 (U)

926.25

+16.25

Jan 20 (F)

482.30

+6.20

Feb 20 (G)

377.00

+2.75

 

  • Soybeans were sharply higher last night as it dawns on the trade (in an eerily similar fashion it did to corn a month ago) that being short with late planting in less than ideal conditions/weather outlook might be a bad idea.
  • US soybean planting progressed 17% to 77% complete this week which is 16% behind the five year average. Ongoing rains for the US Midwest are likely to further hamper planting efforts.
  • The USDA has not yet issued a US soybean condition rating due to the delayed planting and emergence.  The first condition report will be issued next week which is two weeks later than normal.
  • ICE Canola was firmly higher due to both spillover soybeans strength and parts of the Canadian Prairie missing out on recent rains.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.6855

-0.0018

AUDCAD

0.9197

-0.0023

AUDEUR

0.6111

-0.0020

CRUDE (N)

52.17

-0.34

 

  • Currency markets continue to quietly reposition ahead of the highly anticipated two day meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee which begins today. A change to interest rates is not anticipated to occur just yet, but the FOMC is expected to address the deterioration of the international environment and downside risk for growth in their commentary.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WU9 - WN9

3.25

-0.25

KWN9 - WN9

-64.00

-1.75

MWN9 - WN9

20.75

-4.00

WZ9 - WN9

14.50

-0.25

KWU9 - WU9

-55.25

-1.75

MWU9 - WU9

24.00

-4.50

WH0 - WN9

24.75

+0.25

KWZ9 - WZ9

-45.00

-1.25

MWZ9 - WZ9

25.00

-3.00

WN9 - CN9

84.75

-0.75

KWN9 - CN9

20.75

-2.50

MWN9 - CN9

105.50

-4.75

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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