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Grain Market Summary - Friday 22nd September 2017

Compiled by Aaron Dolin

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OVERALL

  • Stronger across most US contracts despite the strength in the USD overnight. Next week’s USDA Small Grains summary report could add some spice to the wheat complex if any Minny numbers surprise. The AUD heading back towards US0.79 cents.                                                                             

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Dec 17  (Z)

452.50

+2.75

$   209.80

$      1.28

449.50

+1.50

624.25

+2.75

Mar 18  (H)

472.00

+2.25

$   218.84

$      1.04

467.50

+1.50

636.00

+1.75

May 18  (K)

485.00

+1.75

$   224.87

$      0.81

480.25

+1.50

640.50

+2.25

July 18  (N)

496.25

+1.75

$   230.08

$      0.81

497.25

+1.50

638.25

+0.50

  • All US wheat futures closed higher overnight after trading lower on the open. Chicago December has settled back above 450c/bu and has widened out to 3c/bu to Kansas.
  • ABARES lowered its Australian wheat export forecast by 2.7mmt to just 18.15mmt, which is now below the 18.50mmt USDA number, citing the ongoing issues in the east coast for the downgrade.
  • The USDA reported weekly US wheat export sales of 307.3kmt – falling slightly below the trades expectations.
  • Reports the EU exported 239kmt of soft wheat this week, which would put its total soft wheat exports at 3.7mmt for the year.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is reporting that 33% of the domestic wheat crop is now affected by excess humidity which is hindering crop development.

 

CORN

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Dec 17 (Z)

350.25

+0.25

Mar 18 (H)

363.00

+0.50

May 18  (K)

371.25

+0.25

  • Corn tried for higher throughout the session but poor export sales kept gains in check. Harvest pressure continues to keep a lid on values.
  • The USDA reported weekly US corn export sales of 526.9kmt – well below the trades expectations.
  • Yields being reported from this year’s US harvest are variable but still beating most of the trades expectations.  

 

OILSEEDS

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Nov 17 (X)

970.75

+0.75

492.10

-0.80

Nov 17   (X)

367.00

-0.25

Mar 18 (H)

990.25

+0.50

499.10

-0.60

Feb 18   (G)

368.50

-0.25

May 18  (K)

998.50

+0.50

503.40

-1.20

May 18   (K)

370.25

-0.25

  • Beans were able to hold above 970c/bu overnight on strong export sales, despite the general weakness in the oilseed complex.
  • The USDA reported weekly US bean export sales of a whopping 2.3mmt – almost doubling the trades expectations.
  • The USDA also reported another 132kmt US bean sale to China overnight.

 

OTHER

 

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7924

-0.0089

AUDCAD

0.9773

-0.0123

CRUDE (U)

50.93

-0.11

  • The AUD was sold off heavily overnight as markets absorbed RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s comments that the RBA is in no material rush to raise domestic interest rates, despite some analysts’ forecasts.
  • Our local ASX200 index (^AXJO) suffered its worst one-day fall in nearly two months, with all sectors except the energy sector losing ground (CommSec TV).
  • The Dow Jones (^DJIA) followed most equity markets by closing lower overnight, as investors start to price in the upcoming US interest rate rises into their portfolios (CommSec TV).  
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued its march higher, gaining a further 21 points overnight to close out the session at 1470.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

 

Close

 

Close

WH8 - WZ7

19.50

-0.50

KWZ7 - WZ7

-3.00

-1.25

MWZ7 - WZ7

171.75

0.00

WK8 - WZ7

32.50

-1.00

KWH8 - WH8

-4.50

-0.75

MWH8 - WH8

164.00

-0.50

WN8 - WZ7

43.75

-1.00

KWK8 - WK8

-4.75

-0.25

MWK8 - WK8

155.50

+0.50

WZ7- CZ7

102.25

+2.50

KWZ7 - CZ7

99.25

+1.25

KWK8 - CK8

109.00

+1.25

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at adolin@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Aaron Dolin

 

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