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Grain Market Summary - Friday 22nd March 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Flooding concerns saw corn strengthen most while also lending support to wheat and soybeans. The AUD has fallen to 0.71 cents this morning.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

May 19 (K)

466.50

+1.75

$241.36

+2.92

447.00

+3.00

571.25

-0.25

July 19 (N)

471.50

+1.50

$243.94

+2.81

455.25

+3.00

571.25

+2.25

Sept 19 (U)

480.00

+1.75

$248.34

+2.98

466.50

+2.75

575.75

+2.25

Dec 19 (Z)

494.75

+1.50

$255.97

+2.91

485.25

+2.00

587.00

+2.25

 

  • A combination of logistical issues (related to getting grain from Kansas to the gulf) and new crop uncertainty are doing their best to keep premiums bid.  Worries that floods in the Northern Plains will delay spring planting also prompted some short covering activity.  
  • Weekly export sales data was at the lower end of market expectations at 298.5k, but was above the 280k needed to keep in line with the USDA’s export forecast for the season.
  • Farmers in Argentina have expressed concern over the 750k tariff free wheat quota that Brazil has reconfirmed with America as it will almost certainly have a negative impact on their supply of wheat to Brazil. Brazil is Argentina’s largest wheat customer and Argentina is not subject to the 10% import tax.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

May 19 (K)

376.25

+4.75

July 19 (N)

385.50

+4.50

Sept 19 (U)

391.75

+3.75

Dec 19 (Z)

398.75

+3.25

 

  • Weather concerns and Chinese rumours pushed CK9 to new recent highs.
  • The forecast says wet which is the opposite of what the Midwest needs. Saturated fields need to dry out over the next fortnight - 3 weeks so that farmers can get in to plant new crop corn.
  • COFCO bought a large amount of CIF corn at the Gulf today which although doesn’t necessarily mean China is behind the purchase ignited interest in China’s appetite nonetheless.
  • Saudi Arabia’s SOGA has issued a tender with a deadline of today for 720k of feed barley for delivery in May/June.
  • US corn exports came in at the higher end of expectations this week at 856k.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

May 19 (K)

910.50

+4.50

May 19 (K)

468.20

+3.50

May 19 (K)

359.50

+1.00

July 19 (N)

924.25

+4.75

July 19 (N)

476.60

+4.10

August 19 (Q)

362.00

+1.00

August 19 (Q)

930.25

+4.25

Nov 19 (X)

488.90

+4.00

Nov 19 (X)

365.50

+0.25

 

  • Soybeans were inspired by corn but average export sales data put a cap on gains.  
  • Li Ning, General Manager of Living Water Trade Co. Ltd. based in China, has said that African Swine Fever will likely curb China’s feed demand by 12% this year.
  • The USDA reported a dismal total of 400k of soybeans sold for the week.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7101

-0.0061

AUDCAD

0.9497

-0.0018

AUDEUR

0.6246

-0.0019

CRUDE (K)

59.98

-0.25

 

  • The USD recovered from recent weakness which saw the AUD drop back to 0.71 cents this morning.
  • Yesterday’s release of strong Australian employment data also drove some underperformance of the AUD in the last 24 hours.
  • Uncertainty remains a theme in global currency markets as we await a resolution to both the US trade war with China and what deal (if any) the UK is able to pass as the deadline for Brexit approaches.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WN9 - WK9

5.00

-0.25

KWK9 - WK9

-19.50

+1.25

MWK9 - WK9

104.75

-2.00

WU9 - WN9

13.50

0.00

KWN9 - WN9

-16.25

+1.50

MWN9 - WN9

99.75

+0.75

WZ9 - WK9

13.50

0.00

KWU9 - WU9

-13.50

+1.00

MWU9 - WU9

95.75

+0.50

WK9 - CK9

90.25

-3.00

KWK9 - CK9

70.75

-1.75

MWK9 - CK9

195.00

-5.00

 

Have a great weekend!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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