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Grain Market Summary - Monday 20th May 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Nothing new for wheat and corn in Friday’s session as both remain weather focused. Soybeans were independently down and heavily so on pessimism surrounding Chinese demand. The AUD has bounced back above 0.69 cents and markets today will be focused on planting progress reports and weather outlooks both at home and internationally.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

July 19 (N)

465.00

-2.00

$247.09

-1.82

420.25

+3.50

527.75

+1.00

Sept 19 (U)

471.25

-2.25

$250.41

-1.96

431.00

+3.25

536.75

+1.00

Dec 19 (Z)

484.25

-2.00

$257.31

-1.85

452.00

+3.25

548.75

+1.50

Mar 20 (H)

496.75

-2.00

$263.96

-1.87

472.25

+2.25

562.00

+1.50

 

  • Wheat was mixed on Friday with Chicago down on profit taking while weather concerns supported Kansas and Minnie.  
  • US futures are almost solely focused on supply at present with little thought being given to demand.  
  • On Friday IKAR increased their Russian 2019/20 wheat estimate to 81mmt (up 400k) and exports were increased to 37.8mmt.
  • French wheat conditions were left unchanged with 79% in good/excellent condition. (FranceAgriMer the source.)

 

CORN & BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

July 19 (N)

383.25

+4.25

Sept 19 (U)

390.50

+3.50

Dec 19 (Z)

398.25

+1.75

Mar 20 (H)

407.75

+1.25

 

  • On Friday corn was again up on wet weather and planting delays.
  • Today’s session will see focus on planting updates and rainfall data from the weekend. Weather maps continue to forecast heavy rain into June.
  • FranceAgriMer reported a 1% improvement for French spring barley (now 89% good/excellent) while winter barley conditions were left unchanged at 75% good/excellent.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

July 19 (N)

821.75

-18.00

July 19 (N)

443.20

-3.80

August 19 (Q)

362.75

-1.50

August 19 (Q)

828.25

-18.25

Nov 19 (X)

455.20

-3.80

Nov 19 (X)

366.50

-1.50

September 19 (U)

834.75

-17.75

Jan 20 (F)

460.80

-3.90

Feb 20 (G)

369.00

-1.75

 

  • Soybeans sharply lower due to threat of corn acres switching to soybean acres and after negative comments on demand from the US Soybean Council.
  • On Friday the US Soybean Council announced that China’s purchasing of US soybeans is unlikely to ever return to its former glory, regardless of if a trade deal is made.
  • ICE Canola was softer on the back of profit taking and spillover weakness from the US soybean complex.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.6914

+0.0020

AUDCAD

0.9294

+0.0010

AUDEUR

0.6194

+0.0026

CRUDE (M)

62.76

-0.11

 

  • The AUD opened stronger this morning on the back of the weekend’s election result. However soon focus will return to more material influences on our currency, such as domestic interest rates where the risk is to the downside.
  • Iron ore values closed at a multi-year high on Friday as the benchmark price broke above $100/tonne for the first time since May 2014. Disruptions to Brazilian supply and strong demand from China to fuel their steel production have supported iron ore values on their upwards trajectory since January.
  • The market is continuing to interpret Trump’s blacklisting of Chinese tele company Huawei Technologies as a major impediment to the progress of the trade deal. The blacklisting is seen as an attempt to not only block the company from US markets, but from global markets.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WU9 - WN9

6.25

-0.25

KWN9 - WN9

-44.75

+5.50

MWN9 - WN9

62.75

+3.00

WZ9 - WN9

19.25

0.00

KWU9 - WU9

-40.25

+5.50

MWU9 - WU9

65.50

+3.25

WH0 - WN9

31.75

0.00

KWZ9 - WZ9

-32.25

+5.25

MWZ9 - WZ9

64.50

+3.50

WN9 - CN9

81.75

-6.25

KWN9 - CN9

37.00

-0.75

MWN9 - CN9

144.50

-3.25

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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