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Grain Market Summary - Wednesday 17th July 2019

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

 

  • Lower across the board; soybeans posted double digit losses as production concerns fade, corn softened on the back of improved weather and condition ratings while wheat drifted lower on a lack of fresh input. The AUD is a touch lower today at 0.7015.

 

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Sept 19 (U)

507.50

-0.25

$265.82

+0.81

446.25

-2.75

530.25

-2.25

Dec 19 (Z)

519.25

-0.75

$271.98

+0.57

466.25

-3.00

543.50

-2.50

Mar 20 (H)

531.50

-1.50

$278.40

+0.21

486.00

-2.75

558.00

-2.75

May 20 (K)

531.50

-1.50

$278.40

+0.21

486.00

-2.75

558.00

-2.75

 

  • Wheat drifted lower on a lack of fresh input.
  • HRW wheat continues to be used as feed grain in the US Southern Plains. This will likely continue until we have more clarity (hopefully) from the next stocks and acreage update in August.
  • EU values continue to soften as good quality/yields are reported from early French harvest.
  • The Russian government’s control of port facilities makes it unlikely that Russian grain will be competitive in the upcoming GASC tender (announced overnight) as they increase fobbing costs in an effort to revenue raise for port improvements.

 

CORN & BARLEY

Corn

CBOT (c/bu)

Sept 19 (U)

435.25

-5.75

Dec 19 (Z)

441.25

-5.75

Mar 20 (H)

448.50

-5.25

May 20 (K)

448.50

-5.25

 

  • Corn futures softened after condition ratings improved by 1% this week. The general expectation was for a decline condition. Corn is now rated 58% good/excellent which is the 5th worst rating recorded for this time of year.
  • Corn will continue to be weather driven until we get some clarity on acreage in August after the resurvey.
  • Ukraine barley harvest is roughly 60% complete with the country expected to produce about 4.9mmt which is in line with recent USDA projections.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

Contract

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (€/t)

August 19 (Q)

887.75

-14.00

Nov 19 (X)

445.30

-1.60

August 19 (Q)

373.00

+2.50

Sept 19 (U)

893.75

-14.00

Jan 20 (F)

452.70

-1.20

Nov 19 (X)

372.75

0.00

Nov 19 (X)

906.00

-14.00

March 20 (H)

459.80

-0.90

Feb 20 (G)

373.00

0.00

 

  • Improved weather conditions, lack of demand and technical selling all combined to push soybeans sharply lower.
  • Soybean conditions were also raised by 1% to 54% good/excellent which added further downward pressure to futures.
  • ICE Canola was similarly lower on Chinese demand concerns as Canada continues to struggle to repair their trade relationship with China.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7015

-0.0025

AUDCAD

0.9183

-0.0006

AUDEUR

0.6257

+0.0004

CRUDE (N)

57.62

-1.96

 

  • US retail sales data beat expectations which allowed the USD to claw back recent losses. However late in the session Trump made noise about hiking tariffs against China again which undid some of the USD’s gains.
  • Overnight data releases (US retail sales, Chinese industrial production) were upbeat which added to the broadly positive sentiment we’ve seen in market’s lately.
  • The AUD is expected to remain supported in the near term as improving risk sentiment from China works against the effects of a firming USD.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WU9 - WN9

11.75

-0.50

KWN9 - WN9

-61.25

-2.50

MWN9 - WN9

22.75

-2.00

WZ9 - WN9

24.00

-1.25

KWU9 - WU9

-53.00

-2.25

MWU9 - WU9

24.25

-1.75

WH0 - WN9

24.00

-1.25

KWZ9 - WZ9

-45.50

-1.25

MWZ9 - WZ9

26.50

-1.25

WN9 - CN9

72.25

+5.50

KWN9 - CN9

11.00

+3.00

MWN9 - CN9

95.00

+3.50

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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